New Study Predicts Global Vehicle Sales Will Drop 13% in 2009

Global light vehicle sales could fall as much as 13% to an estimated total of 56.8 million units in 2009, according to a study released by R. L. Polk & Co, a Michigan-based firm that collects and interprets automotive data. The report forecasts that after experiencing a 17 percent drop in 2008, U.S. light vehicle sales are expected to decrease by another 19 percent in 2009 to a total of 10.7 million units split between 8.5 million units for consumer retail and 2.2 million units for the fleet market.

Polk's study find that while Western Europe is showing less volatility than the U.S. auto market, sales are still expected to shrink by 12% over 2008 to 13.5 million units in 2009. As for the Asian market, with the exclusion of Japan, Polk is forecasting 12.4 million units in 2009 compared to sales of 13.3 million units in 2008.

"As domestic automakers are hard at work on their respective turn-around plans, they have to estimate overall industry volume, individual market shares, and vehicle mix to project their revenue potential and align their global cost structure," said Lionel Yron, director of Consulting & Analytics at Polk. "With the inability to use rising home prices to generate liquidity and tighter lending rules, Polk sees the U.S. market stabilizing around 16 million units within 3 to 5 years depending on the efficiency of the government stimulus package," Yron added.